When can physical distancing be relaxed? A health production function approach for COVID-19 control policy
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Background To assess if physical distancing measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic can be relaxed, one of key indicators used is reproduction number R . Many developing countries, however, have limited capacities estimate accurately. This study aims demonstrate how health production function state transmission and determine a risk-based relaxation policy. Methods The author employs simple “bridge” between epidemiological models economics establish cumulative cases as short-run total product derive corresponding marginal product, average elasticity. Three crucial dates defining states transmission, labelled red, yellow, green zones, are determined. Relaxation policy illogical in “red zone” not recommended “yellow zone”. In “green zone”, considered. Bayesian probability near term’s daily meeting target computed. method applied France, Germany, Italy, UK, US, Indonesia an example application countries. Results uses data from WHO Dashboard, beginning first recording date for each country until February 28, 2021. As June 30, 2020, UK had arrived at but with high risk re-escalations. following weeks, their elasticities were rising, giving signal accelerated transmissions. was corroborated by these countries’ rising cases, making them leaving later months. By 2021, returned Italy still while US reached very cases. Despite being relaxed its measures, causing sharp rise Conclusions Health show transmission. A elasticity gives early warning escalations. useful parameter
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: BMC Public Health
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1471-2458']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11088-x